Football · USA NPSL · 27/06, 23:30
Virginia Dream vs Ristozi FC
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia Dream 1562 · Ristozi FC 1570
| Virginia Dream | Draw | Ristozi FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Market | 42% | 22% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.84Virginia Dream 1.98 · Ristozi FC 1.85
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.84 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (1 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia Dream | Ristozi FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.2 | 3.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia Dream 1–1–0 Ristozi FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 USA NPSL | Virginia Dream | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ristozi FC |
| 15/06/25 USA NPSL | Ristozi FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Virginia Dream |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia Dream
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Alexandria Reds USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
2-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | District Elite USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
3-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/03 | Carolina Core FC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
Ristozi FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 18/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/06 | District Elite USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | District Elite USA NPSL |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Alexandria Reds USA NPSL |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
4-0 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/03 | Charlotte Independence USA US Open Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | Hickory FC USA NPSL |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |