Football · USA NPSL · 02/07, 01:30
Alexandria Reds vs FC Frederick
Expected goals: 3.71 (Alexandria Reds 2.28 · FC Frederick 1.43). The model gives 56% home, 21% draw, 23% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandria Reds 1492 · FC Frederick 1518
| Alexandria Reds | Draw | FC Frederick | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Market | 56% | 21% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.71Alexandria Reds 2.28 · FC Frederick 1.43
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alexandria Reds: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alexandria Reds | FC Frederick | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 3 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.4 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexandria Reds 6–0–0 FC Frederick
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/25 USA NPSL | FC Frederick | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Alexandria Reds |
| 02/06/25 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 4-0 HT 3-0 | FC Frederick |
| 20/06/24 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 5-0 HT 2-0 | FC Frederick |
| 14/07/22 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 3-1 HT 3-1 | FC Frederick |
| 18/06/22 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Frederick |
| 29/05/22 USA NPSL | FC Frederick | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Alexandria Reds |
Standings · USA NPSL · NPSL 2026, Mid-Atlantic Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ristozi FC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Virginia Atlantic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 18 |
| 3 | Virginia Dream | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | District Elite | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Frederick | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 14 |
| 6 | Alexandria Reds | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 13 |
| 7 | Grove Soccer United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 10 |
| 8 | Hub City FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 7 |
| 9 | DMV Elite FC | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alexandria Reds | FC Frederick |
|---|---|---|
| Grove Soccer United | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Virginia Dream | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| District Elite | 2-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Hub City FC | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| DMV Elite FC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Ristozi FC | 1-2 L | 1-7 L |
| Virginia Atlantic | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Frederick (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandria Reds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | Virginia Dream USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | District Elite USA NPSL |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
4-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/07 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
FC Frederick
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
1-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/06 | Virginia Dream USA NPSL |
0-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Virginia Dream USA NPSL |
0-3 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 11/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-4 | 1-7 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | District Elite USA NPSL |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 06/07 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |