⚽ Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/06, 13:00
Garuda FC vs University Azzurri FC
83%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Garuda FC 1358 · University Azzurri FC 1675
| Garuda FC | Draw | University Azzurri FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 14% | 71% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.88 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.88Garuda FC 1.57 · University Azzurri FC 3.31
Over / Under 5.5Under 5.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 76%
Likely score1-3
💎 ValueUnder 5.5 goals · +7.1%The model gives this bet 7.1% more probability than its odds (1.95) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- University Azzurri FC usually leads at HT (70%) while Garuda FC trails (60%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1358 vs 1675).
- High estimate: 4.88 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Garuda FC | University Azzurri FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 4.5 | 4.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Garuda FC 2–1–3 University Azzurri FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Garuda FC |
| 24/03/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Garuda FC |
| 18/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 1-4 HT 1-2 | University Azzurri FC |
| 17/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Garuda FC |
| 14/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 5-1 HT 4-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 07/09/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 2-2 HT 0-2 | University Azzurri FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Garuda FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-5 | 1-9 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 23/04 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-8 | 1 | 3 | L |
University Azzurri FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |