Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 28/06, 08:30
Darwin Olympic vs Darwin Hearts
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1530 · Darwin Hearts 1492
| Darwin Olympic | Draw | Darwin Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 21% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.1Darwin Olympic 2.37 · Darwin Hearts 1.73
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 4.1 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Darwin Olympic: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 2.7 combined avg at HT (1.7 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Darwin Olympic | Darwin Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.5 / 2.1 | 2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.8 | 2.3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 4–0–2 Darwin Hearts
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 13/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Darwin Hearts |
| 30/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 20/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 26/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Darwin Olympic |
| 14/09/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Darwin Olympic |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darwin Olympic
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-1 | 9-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 7-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 8-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 4 | L |
Darwin Hearts
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |