Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 30/06, 18:00

JK Nomme United II vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Expected goals: 4.23 (JK Nomme United II 1.19 · FC Flora Tallinn II 3.05). The model gives 10% home, 17% draw, 73% away. Over 4 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-3.

73%2

10% 17% 73%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1447 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1571

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	11%	15%	74%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.23JK Nomme United II 1.19 · FC Flora Tallinn II 3.05

Over / Under 4Over 4 · 52%

BTTSYes · 58%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn II (rating 1447 vs 1571).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.7	3.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	1.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.95

2 (-1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 9.50 → 9.50 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 1.25 → 1.25 – 0%

Over/Under 4

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 0–1–0 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	2-2 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	17	13	2	2	52	21	41
2	Viimsi JK	16	9	3	4	26	12	30
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	14	9	2	3	39	24	29
4	FC Elva	17	7	2	8	29	30	23
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	17	6	3	8	32	33	21
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	16	5	4	7	20	33	19
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	17	6	0	11	30	33	18
8	JK Nomme United II	15	5	3	7	28	34	18
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	16	5	2	9	26	40	17
10	FC Tallinn	17	3	5	9	21	43	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	FC Flora Tallinn II
Tartu JK Welco	2-5 L	3-3 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-2 L	3-1 W
FC Elva	1-0 W	3-0 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-2 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn II (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United II

WLDLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
18/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
15/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	1-4	1	1	L
25/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-4	2	5	L
16/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	6	2	D
09/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
01/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-4	7	7	D
24/04	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	5	8	L
19/04	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	6	5	W

FC Flora Tallinn II

WWWWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	13	3	W
18/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
14/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	7	6	W
17/05	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	3-3	1	6	D
13/05	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	9	2	D
09/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
01/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
23/04	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	3-2	8	5	W
16/04	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
10/04	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W