Football · China Super League Women · 28/06, 13:00
Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) vs Changchun Dazhong (W)
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) 1572 · Changchun Dazhong (W) 1486
| Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) | Draw | Changchun Dazhong (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.49Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) 1.82 · Changchun Dazhong (W) 0.66
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) (rating 1572 vs 1486).
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) | Changchun Dazhong (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.2 | 1.8 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) 1–1–0 Changchun Dazhong (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 China Super League Women | Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Changchun Dazhong (W) |
| 08/06/25 China Super League Women | Changchun Dazhong (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Shanghai (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Shandong (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Sichuan Jiannanchun Women China Super League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Beijing (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Guangdong (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 28/09 | Beijing (W) China Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Wuhan Jiangda (W) China Super League Women |
4-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Shandong (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
Changchun Dazhong (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Shandong (W) China Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/06 | Beijing (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) China Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Shanghai (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Guangxi Pingguo (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Jiangsu Suning (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Wuhan Jiangda (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 28/09 | Yongchuan Chashan (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) China Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Jiangsu Suning (W) China Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |