⚽ Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 26/06, 17:00
Arba Minch vs Welwalo Adigrat
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arba Minch 1508 · Welwalo Adigrat 1507
| Arba Minch | Draw | Welwalo Adigrat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.41Arba Minch 1.39 · Welwalo Adigrat 1.02
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Arba Minch: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arba Minch | Welwalo Adigrat | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 0/90/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.4 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Arba Minch 2–2–0 Welwalo Adigrat
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Ethiopia Premier League | Welwalo Adigrat | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Arba Minch |
| 23/05/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Welwalo Adigrat | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Arba Minch |
| 23/11/24 Ethiopia Premier League | Arba Minch | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Welwalo Adigrat |
| 10/12/17 Ethiopia Premier League | Arba Minch | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Welwalo Adigrat |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Arba Minch
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 15/06 | Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 30/04 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Welwalo Adigrat
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 16/06 | Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/05 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Cup |
0-0 | 7-6 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/05 | Adama City Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 06/05 | Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 30/04 | Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Cup |
0-0 | 5-4 | 1 | 5 | W |