Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 27/06, 19:45
Cabofriense vs Perolas Negras
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cabofriense 1466 · Perolas Negras 1517
| Cabofriense | Draw | Perolas Negras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.29Cabofriense 1.41 · Perolas Negras 0.88
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Perolas Negras (rating 1466 vs 1517).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cabofriense | Perolas Negras | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cabofriense 1–0–0 Perolas Negras
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Cabofriense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Perolas Negras |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cabofriense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 20/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/06 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Perolas Negras
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 14/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/05 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |