Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 27/06, 19:45
Serrano vs Sao Goncalo
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Serrano 1474 · Sao Goncalo 1487
| Serrano | Draw | Sao Goncalo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Market | 45% | 31% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.71 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.71Serrano 1.04 · Sao Goncalo 0.67
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.71 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Sao Goncalo: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 13.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Serrano | Sao Goncalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.2 | 7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Serrano 2–1–3 Sao Goncalo
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Sao Goncalo | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Serrano |
| 17/06/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Serrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Goncalo |
| 26/10/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sao Goncalo |
| 28/10/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 4-3 HT 3-1 | Sao Goncalo |
| 17/09/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Goncalo |
| 23/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Sao Goncalo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Serrano |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Serrano
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Copa Rio |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 20/06 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 16/05 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
Sao Goncalo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Serrano Brazil Copa Rio |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 20/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Serrano Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 06/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/06 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 13/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |