Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/07, 17:45
JyTy vs SalPa 2
Expected goals: 3.17 (JyTy 1.18 · SalPa 2 1.99). The model gives 22% home, 22% draw, 56% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · JyTy 1422 · SalPa 2 1530
| JyTy | Draw | SalPa 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Market | 23% | 20% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.17JyTy 1.18 · SalPa 2 1.99
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa 2 (rating 1422 vs 1530).
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JyTy | SalPa 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.5 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EuPa | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | IFK Mariehamn II | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | PIF Parainen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | KaaPo | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 5 | VG-62 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | SalPa 2 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | MaPS | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 16 |
| 8 | Peimari United | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
| 9 | LTU | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 10 |
| 10 | PiPS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | ACF | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 7 |
| 12 | JyTy | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | JyTy | SalPa 2 |
|---|---|---|
| ACF | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| PiPS | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| LTU | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| VG-62 | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Peimari United | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| EuPa | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| KaaPo | 1-6 L | 2-0 W |
| PIF Parainen | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| MaPS | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 7 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: SalPa 2 (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JyTy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | LTU Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | VG-62 Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 07/05 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/02 | PIF Parainen Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
SalPa 2
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 02/06 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | LTU Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | VG-62 Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |