Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 02/07, 21:15

Ulfarnir vs Hamar Hveragerdi

Expected goals: 4.5 (Ulfarnir 1.5 · Hamar Hveragerdi 3). The model gives 16% home, 16% draw, 67% away. Under 4.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-2.

67%2

16% 16% 67%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulfarnir 1509 · Hamar Hveragerdi 1597

	Ulfarnir	Draw	Hamar Hveragerdi
Our model	16%	17%	67%
Market	16%	16%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.5Ulfarnir 1.5 · Hamar Hveragerdi 3

Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 62%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1509 vs 1597).
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulfarnir	Hamar Hveragerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.1	4.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	3.2 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

X 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

2 1.33 → 1.33 – 0%

Over/Under 4.5

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulfarnir 1–1–0 Hamar Hveragerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Iceland Cup	Ulfarnir	4-2 HT 0-0	Hamar Hveragerdi
15/03/17 Iceland League Cup	Ulfarnir	1-1 HT 1-0	Hamar Hveragerdi

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	8	8	0	0	23	7	24
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	8	7	0	1	35	14	21
3	Arborg	8	5	1	2	22	6	16
4	Ulfarnir	8	2	4	2	18	17	10
5	Vaengir Jupiters	8	3	1	4	20	20	10
6	Ellidi	8	3	1	4	18	23	10
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	8	2	2	4	22	26	8
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	8	2	0	6	21	26	6
9	KF Hafnir	8	1	2	5	8	35	5
10	Alafoss	8	1	1	6	9	22	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulfarnir	Hamar Hveragerdi
Alafoss	2-2 D	6-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-3 D	5-1 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	3-3 D	5-2 W
Alftanes	1-2 L	1-5 L
Ellidi	5-4 W	4-0 W
Arborg	0-0 D	3-0 W
IH Hafnarfjordur	4-2 W	7-4 W
KF Hafnir	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ulfarnir

WLLWDWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
19/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/06	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-3	6	1	D
05/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
31/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	4-3	5-4	7	4	W
21/05	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
14/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	4-2	5	2	W
07/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
26/03	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland Cup	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
10/03	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland Cup	0-0	4-2	–	–	W

Hamar Hveragerdi

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	6-1	8	1	W
11/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
04/06	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	5-1	8	2	W
31/05	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	7-4	–	–	W
21/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	5-2	4	4	W
14/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	4-1	–	–	W
07/05	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-4	1-5	11	2	L
08/04	Smari Iceland League Cup C	4-1	6-1	3	2	W
10/03	Ulfarnir Iceland Cup	0-0	2-4	–	–	L