Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 02/07, 21:15

Arborg vs KFR Hvolsvöllur

Expected goals: 4.5 (Arborg 3.07 · KFR Hvolsvöllur 1.43). The model gives 70% home, 15% draw, 15% away. Over 4.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 3-1.

70%1

70% 15% 15%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arborg 1557 · KFR Hvolsvöllur 1451

	Arborg	Draw	KFR Hvolsvöllur
Our model	70%	16%	15%
Market	70%	15%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.5Arborg 3.07 · KFR Hvolsvöllur 1.43

Over / Under 4.5Over 4.5 · 50%

BTTSYes · 61%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arborg (rating 1557 vs 1451).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arborg	KFR Hvolsvöllur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	2.4 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.1	2.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X6.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.28 → 1.28 – 0%

X 6.00 → 6.00 – 0%

2 6.00 → 6.00 – 0%

Over/Under 4.5

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arborg 1–1–0 KFR Hvolsvöllur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/24 Iceland League Cup C	Arborg	1-1 HT 1-0	KFR Hvolsvöllur
30/06/21 Iceland 4 Deild	Arborg	4-2 HT 2-2	KFR Hvolsvöllur

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	8	8	0	0	23	7	24
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	8	7	0	1	35	14	21
3	Arborg	8	5	1	2	22	6	16
4	Ulfarnir	8	2	4	2	18	17	10
5	Vaengir Jupiters	8	3	1	4	20	20	10
6	Ellidi	8	3	1	4	18	23	10
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	8	2	2	4	22	26	8
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	8	2	0	6	21	26	6
9	KF Hafnir	8	1	2	5	8	35	5
10	Alafoss	8	1	1	6	9	22	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arborg	KFR Hvolsvöllur
Alftanes	0-1 L	2-3 L
Ellidi	6-0 W	3-5 L
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-3 L	2-5 L
IH Hafnarfjordur	2-1 W	1-2 L
KF Hafnir	8-0 W	4-4 D
Ulfarnir	0-0 D	3-3 D
Alafoss	3-0 W	2-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	3-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Arborg (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arborg

WDWWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/06	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
18/06	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	6-0	7	9	W
11/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
04/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
31/05	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	6-0	8-0	6	2	W
21/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
14/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
07/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
22/03	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland Cup	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
04/09	KFS Iceland 4 Deild	2-3	4-3	–	–	W

KFR Hvolsvöllur

LLLLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-2	4-4	7	7	D
12/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	3-3	5	1	D
04/06	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
31/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	3-0	5-3	–	–	W
21/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	1-4	2-5	4	4	L
14/05	Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild	1-2	2-3	11	4	L
07/05	Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild	1-3	3-5	6	2	L
30/03	Haukar Iceland Cup	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
19/08	Ulfarnir Iceland 5 Deild	0-2	2-3	4	7	L