Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 01/07, 21:15

Ellidi vs Alftanes

Expected goals: 3.99 (Ellidi 1.29 · Alftanes 2.7). The model gives 16% home, 17% draw, 67% away. Under 4.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-2.

67%2

16% 17% 67%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ellidi 1489 · Alftanes 1597

	Ellidi	Draw	Alftanes
Our model	16%	18%	67%
Market	16%	16%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.99Ellidi 1.29 · Alftanes 2.7

Over / Under 4.25Under 4.25 · 54%

BTTSYes · 59%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alftanes (rating 1489 vs 1597).
H2H favours Alftanes: 2-1-1.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ellidi	Alftanes
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.5	2.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 7.1	4.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

X 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

2 1.33 → 1.33 – 0%

Over/Under 4

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ellidi 1–1–2 Alftanes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Ellidi	3-1 HT 1-1	Alftanes
03/07/25 Iceland 4 Deild	Alftanes	1-0 HT 0-0	Ellidi
17/08/20 Iceland 3 Deild	Ellidi	1-5 HT 0-2	Alftanes
18/06/20 Iceland 3 Deild	Alftanes	0-0 HT 0-0	Ellidi

Standings · Iceland 4 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alftanes	8	8	0	0	23	7	24
2	Hamar Hveragerdi	8	7	0	1	35	14	21
3	Arborg	8	5	1	2	22	6	16
4	Ulfarnir	8	2	4	2	18	17	10
5	Vaengir Jupiters	8	3	1	4	20	20	10
6	Ellidi	8	3	1	4	18	23	10
7	KFR Hvolsvöllur	8	2	2	4	22	26	8
8	IH Hafnarfjordur	8	2	0	6	21	26	6
9	KF Hafnir	8	1	2	5	8	35	5
10	Alafoss	8	1	1	6	9	22	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ellidi	Alftanes
Hamar Hveragerdi	0-4 L	5-1 W
Arborg	0-6 L	1-0 W
IH Hafnarfjordur	6-2 W	2-1 W
KF Hafnir	0-0 D	5-0 W
Ulfarnir	4-5 L	2-1 W
Alafoss	3-1 W	2-1 W
Vaengir Jupiters	0-2 L	3-1 W
KFR Hvolsvöllur	5-3 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alftanes (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ellidi

WLWLWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	0-5	0-6	5	9	L
11/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	4-1	6-2	9	4	W
04/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
31/05	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	3-4	4-5	9	4	L
21/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	0-1	0-2	9	10	L
07/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	3-1	5-3	5	2	W
28/03	Grindavik Iceland Cup	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
21/03	Reynir Hellissandur Iceland Cup	4-0	9-0	–	–	W

Alftanes

WLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/06	Arborg Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/06	IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/06	KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild	5-0	5-0	7	4	W
05/06	Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
31/05	Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
21/05	Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild	2-1	3-2	7	4	W
07/05	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild	4-0	5-1	13	2	W
06/04	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland Cup	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
30/03	Kari Iceland Cup	1-0	5-1	–	–	W