⚽ Football · Iceland 4 Deild · 25/06, 22:00
Alafoss vs Ulfarnir
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafoss 1445 · Ulfarnir 1535
| Alafoss | Draw | Ulfarnir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 21% | 44% |
| Market | 23% | 19% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.99Alafoss 1.88 · Ulfarnir 2.11
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 52%
BTTSYes · 74%
Likely score1-2
💎 ValueAlafoss +5.5%The model gives this bet 5.5% more probability than its odds (3.90) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulfarnir (rating 1445 vs 1535).
- High estimate: 3.99 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Ulfarnir: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alafoss | Ulfarnir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 3 | 2.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.1 | 3.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafoss 1–1–2 Ulfarnir
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/25 Iceland 5 Deild | Ulfarnir | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Alafoss |
| 22/08/24 Iceland 5 Deild | Ulfarnir | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Alafoss |
| 10/08/23 Iceland 5 Deild | Ulfarnir | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Alafoss |
| 19/06/23 Iceland 5 Deild | Alafoss | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Ulfarnir |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Alafoss
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild |
1-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/06 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/03 | Fjolnir Iceland Cup |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/09 | Ulfarnir Iceland 5 Deild |
2-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/08 | Lettir Reykjavik Iceland 5 Deild |
4-3 | 6-4 | 7 | 3 | W |
Ulfarnir
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 12/06 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 05/06 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
4-3 | 5-4 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/03 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/03 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/09 | Skallagrimur Borgarnes Iceland 5 Deild |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |