Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 27/06, 20:00
Americano RJ vs Marica RJ
35%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Americano RJ 1564 · Marica RJ 1520
| Americano RJ | Draw | Marica RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.97Americano RJ 1.01 · Marica RJ 0.96
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 55%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Americano RJ (rating 1564 vs 1520).
- Low estimate: 1.97 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Americano RJ: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Americano RJ | Marica RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Americano RJ 2–1–1 Marica RJ
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Americano RJ | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marica RJ |
| 01/07/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Americano RJ | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Marica RJ |
| 28/07/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Marica RJ | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Americano RJ |
| 17/07/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Americano RJ | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Marica RJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Americano RJ
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
Marica RJ
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 20/05 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |