Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 27/06, 18:00
KF Fjallabyggd vs FC Arbaer
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KF Fjallabyggd 1506 · FC Arbaer 1440
| KF Fjallabyggd | Draw | FC Arbaer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 56% | 20% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.64KF Fjallabyggd 2.23 · FC Arbaer 1.41
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 55%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KF Fjallabyggd (rating 1506 vs 1440).
- High estimate: 3.64 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours FC Arbaer: 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KF Fjallabyggd | FC Arbaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.7 | 1.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Fjallabyggd 0–0–2 FC Arbaer
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/25 Iceland 3 Deild | FC Arbaer | 2-0 HT 0-0 | KF Fjallabyggd |
| 17/05/25 Iceland 3 Deild | KF Fjallabyggd | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC Arbaer |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KF Fjallabyggd
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild |
0-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Sindri Iceland 3 Deild |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/09 | Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
2-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 7 | D |
FC Arbaer
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Sindri Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 01/06 | KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild |
2-1 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | KF Aegir Iceland Cup |
1-2 | 1-7 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Lettir Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
2-2 | 5-3 | – | – | W |