Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 28/06, 16:00
Reynir Sandgerdi vs Ymir Kopavogur
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Reynir Sandgerdi 1518 · Ymir Kopavogur 1472
| Reynir Sandgerdi | Draw | Ymir Kopavogur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 21% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 20% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.05Reynir Sandgerdi 2.34 · Ymir Kopavogur 1.71
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reynir Sandgerdi (rating 1518 vs 1472).
- High estimate: 4.05 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Reynir Sandgerdi: 2-2-0.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 12 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Reynir Sandgerdi | Ymir Kopavogur | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 2.3 | 1.7 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 7.3 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Reynir Sandgerdi 2–2–0 Ymir Kopavogur
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Iceland 3 Deild | Ymir Kopavogur | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Reynir Sandgerdi |
| 30/05/25 Iceland 3 Deild | Reynir Sandgerdi | 3-3 HT 0-3 | Ymir Kopavogur |
| 08/09/23 Iceland 3 Deild | Ymir Kopavogur | 3-5 HT 1-2 | Reynir Sandgerdi |
| 30/06/23 Iceland 3 Deild | Reynir Sandgerdi | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Ymir Kopavogur |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Reynir Sandgerdi
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Sindri Iceland 3 Deild |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 05/06 | Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
2-0 | 6-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/04 | KFG Gardabaer Iceland League Cup B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
Ymir Kopavogur
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/06 | Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Sindri Iceland 3 Deild |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 10/04 | Throttur Vogar Iceland League Cup B |
1-1 | 4-3 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Afturelding Iceland Cup |
1-3 | 1-6 | – | – | L |