⚽ Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/06, 18:30
Valtti vs MPS/Atletico Malmi
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valtti 1517 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1564
| Valtti | Draw | MPS/Atletico Malmi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| Market | 39% | 21% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.92Valtti 1.98 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1.93
BTTSYes · 75%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- MPS/Atletico Malmi usually leads at HT (63%) while Valtti trails (56%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MPS/Atletico Malmi (rating 1517 vs 1564).
- High estimate: 3.92 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours MPS/Atletico Malmi: 3-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valtti | MPS/Atletico Malmi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/22/56% | 63/13/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.6 | 2.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Valtti 0–0–3 MPS/Atletico Malmi
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/24 Finland Kolmonen | MPS/Atletico Malmi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Valtti |
| 28/06/24 Finland Kolmonen | Valtti | 1-2 HT 1-1 | MPS/Atletico Malmi |
| 04/07/20 Finland Kolmonen | MPS/Atletico Malmi | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Valtti |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Valtti
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | PPS Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | HPS II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | ToTe Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 21/05 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 3-7 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 29/04 | EPS Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
MPS/Atletico Malmi
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | HPS II Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | ToTe Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen |
3-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/04 | Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/04 | PPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |