⚽ Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/06, 19:15
HPS II vs ToTe
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HPS II 1494 · ToTe 1525
| HPS II | Draw | ToTe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | 29% | 21% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.61HPS II 1.89 · ToTe 1.73
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 70%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueHPS II +6%The model gives this bet 6% more probability than its odds (3.10) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- High estimate: 3.61 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.8 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HPS II | ToTe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/13/50% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.6 | 3.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.3 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
HPS II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/06 | Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/06 | Valtti Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 28/05 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
2-3 | 4-3 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | PPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 28/04 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 2-6 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
ToTe
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Valtti Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen |
4-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | PPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Valtti Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |