Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/06, 19:00

PPJ/Lauttasaari vs Atlantis FC/PM

Expected goals: 4.5 (PPJ/Lauttasaari 3.1 · Atlantis FC/PM 1.4). The model gives 71% home, 15% draw, 14% away. Over 4.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 3-1.

71%1

71% 15% 14%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PPJ/Lauttasaari 1578 · Atlantis FC/PM 1465

	PPJ/Lauttasaari	Draw	Atlantis FC/PM
Our model	71%	16%	14%
Market	71%	14%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.5PPJ/Lauttasaari 3.1 · Atlantis FC/PM 1.4

Over / Under 4.5Over 4.5 · 50%

BTTSYes · 61%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PPJ/Lauttasaari (rating 1578 vs 1465).
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PPJ/Lauttasaari	Atlantis FC/PM
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 1.4	2.2 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/13/25%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.4	3.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X6.25

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 5.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.27 → 1.27 – 0%

X 6.25 → 6.25 – 0%

2 6.25 → 6.25 – 0%

Over/Under 4.5

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Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	11	8	0	3	27	18	24
2	PPJ/Lauttasaari	10	6	3	1	37	14	21
3	ToTe	9	6	1	2	23	10	19
4	Valtti	9	6	0	3	19	16	18
5	LPS Helsinki	9	5	1	3	29	23	16
6	HPS II	11	4	2	5	27	28	14
7	Tips Vantaa	10	4	0	6	23	28	12
8	VJS Vantaa II	10	3	2	5	27	20	11
9	Töölön Taisto	9	2	5	2	19	18	11
10	Atlantis FC/PM	10	3	2	5	22	32	11
11	FC Kontu	10	1	4	5	15	25	7
12	PPS	10	1	0	9	7	43	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PPJ/Lauttasaari	Atlantis FC/PM
PPS	9-0 W	2-3 L
Tips Vantaa	1-2 L	4-2 W
VJS Vantaa II	2-2 D	3-6 L
MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-0 W	1-6 L
Valtti	7-3 W	2-1 W
Töölön Taisto	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Kontu	0-0 D	2-2 D
ToTe	1-0 W	3-2 W
HPS II	6-2 W	2-4 L
LPS Helsinki	5-3 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: PPJ/Lauttasaari (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PPJ/Lauttasaari

WWWDDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	3-0	9-0	5	2	W
12/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
07/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
29/05	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	1	5	W
21/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	3-1	7-3	8	4	W
15/05	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	6	5	D
07/05	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
02/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/04	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-2	5	3	W
24/04	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	1-3	5-3	11	1	W

Atlantis FC/PM

DLLWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-2	8	5	W
12/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-6	–	–	L
05/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	4	2	L
27/05	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
21/05	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	4	4	D
15/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	8	4	W
09/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/04	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	6	3	L
17/04	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	7	4	D