⚽ Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/06, 18:00
LTU vs VG-62
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · LTU 1434 · VG-62 1516
| LTU | Draw | VG-62 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.88LTU 1.35 · VG-62 1.53
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueUnder 3.5 goals · +7%The model gives this bet 7% more probability than its odds (1.82) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VG-62 (rating 1434 vs 1516).
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LTU | VG-62 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/44/44% | 25/50/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · LTU 0–2–0 VG-62
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | VG-62 | 3-3 HT 1-1 | LTU |
| 27/06/25 Finland Kolmonen | LTU | 0-0 HT 0-0 | VG-62 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
LTU
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | JyTy Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-3 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/02 | MaPS Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
VG-62
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | JyTy Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Narpes Kraft Finland Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |