Football · Tanzania Premier League · 30/06, 15:00
Namungo FC vs Mtibwa Sugar
Expected goals: 2.16 (Namungo FC 1.4 · Mtibwa Sugar 0.76). The model gives 51% home, 29% draw, 19% away. Over 2 goals (52%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Namungo FC 1486 · Mtibwa Sugar 1409
| Namungo FC | Draw | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.16Namungo FC 1.4 · Mtibwa Sugar 0.76
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Namungo FC (rating 1486 vs 1409).
- H2H favours Namungo FC: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Namungo FC | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.7 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Namungo FC 2–4–0 Mtibwa Sugar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Tanzania Premier League | Mtibwa Sugar | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Namungo FC |
| 20/05/24 Tanzania Premier League | Mtibwa Sugar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Namungo FC |
| 07/12/23 Tanzania Premier League | Namungo FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mtibwa Sugar |
| 16/12/22 Tanzania Premier League | Mtibwa Sugar | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Namungo FC |
| 15/08/22 Tanzania Premier League | Namungo FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Mtibwa Sugar |
| 26/06/22 Tanzania Premier League | Mtibwa Sugar | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Namungo FC |
Standings · Tanzania Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 68 | 9 | 72 |
| 2 | Simba Sports Club | 29 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 53 | 11 | 70 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 29 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 12 | 61 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 44 | 31 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 42 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba SC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji FC | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 34 | 35 |
| 9 | Coastal Union | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 29 | 36 | 33 |
| 10 | Mashujaa FC | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 33 |
| 11 | Namungo FC | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 31 | 31 |
| 12 | Singida Fountain Gate FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 41 | 30 |
| 13 | Mbeya City | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 41 | 29 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 41 | 29 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 24 | 46 | 27 |
| 16 | KMC FC | 29 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 52 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Namungo FC | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| KMC FC | 3-2 W | 4-3 W |
| TRA United | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Mbeya City | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Singida Black Stars | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Azam FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Dodoma Jiji FC | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Namungo FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Namungo FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | KMC FC Tanzania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/06 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Young Africans Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 21/05 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Azam FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Mtibwa Sugar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/05 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | KMC FC Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Azam FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |