Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 30/06, 17:00
FK Panevezys II vs Vilnius Football Academy
Expected goals: 4.06 (FK Panevezys II 1.82 · Vilnius Football Academy 2.24). The model gives 31% home, 22% draw, 47% away. Over 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-2.
47%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Panevezys II 1525 · Vilnius Football Academy 1536
| FK Panevezys II | Draw | Vilnius Football Academy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 22% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.06FK Panevezys II 1.82 · Vilnius Football Academy 2.24
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Panevezys II | Vilnius Football Academy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1.9 | 3.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 8.5 | 3.1 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 5.1 / 0.6 |
Standings · Lithuania II Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevezis | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Vilnius Football Academy | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 14 | 29 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | FK Sveikata | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 24 |
| 5 | FM Klaipedos | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Panevezys II | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 21 | 22 |
| 7 | FK Sirvena | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 18 | 19 |
| 8 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 18 |
| 9 | FKS Ukmerge | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Sirijus Klaipeda | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 16 |
| 11 | Banga Gargzdai II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 12 | FK Silute | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 13 | Utenis Utena | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 12 |
| 14 | FK Viltis Vilnius | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 54 | 8 |
| 15 | DFK Dainava II | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Panevezys II | Vilnius Football Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Utenis Utena | 2-2 D | 6-1 W |
| FK Sirvena | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Viltis Vilnius | 6-0 W | 9-0 W |
| Suduva Marijampole II | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| FKS Ukmerge | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Sirijus Klaipeda | 1-5 L | 2-4 L |
| DFK Dainava II | 6-2 W | 4-2 W |
| FM Klaipedos | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Panevezys II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 19/06 | FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-2 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/05 | FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga |
1-3 | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
Vilnius Football Academy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga |
4-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga |
6-0 | 9-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 19 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 08/05 | Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | FK Riteriai Lithuania Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |