Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 28/06, 14:00
Suduva Marijampole II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Suduva Marijampole II 1545 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 1489
| Suduva Marijampole II | Draw | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.09Suduva Marijampole II 1.73 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 1.36
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole II (rating 1545 vs 1489).
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Suduva Marijampole II | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 11/33/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.8 | 6.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Suduva Marijampole II 2–0–2 FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/25 Lithuania II Lyga | Suduva Marijampole II | 4-1 HT 1-1 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II |
| 06/04/25 Lithuania II Lyga | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole II |
| 04/11/24 Lithuania II Lyga | Suduva Marijampole II | 5-2 HT 1-1 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II |
| 06/07/24 Lithuania II Lyga | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Suduva Marijampole II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Suduva Marijampole II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/06 | FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/05 | Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | FK Riteriai II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/04 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/05 | Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/04 | Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |