Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 27/06, 12:30
FK Viltis Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai II
67%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Viltis Vilnius 1381 · Banga Gargzdai II 1493
| FK Viltis Vilnius | Draw | Banga Gargzdai II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 17% | 67% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.08FK Viltis Vilnius 1.31 · Banga Gargzdai II 2.77
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banga Gargzdai II (rating 1381 vs 1493).
- High estimate: 4.08 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Banga Gargzdai II: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Viltis Vilnius | Banga Gargzdai II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 4.5 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 2.1 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 1.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.5 | 2.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Viltis Vilnius 0–0–4 Banga Gargzdai II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 Lithuania II Lyga | FK Viltis Vilnius | 0-9 HT 0-5 | Banga Gargzdai II |
| 16/05/25 Lithuania II Lyga | Banga Gargzdai II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Viltis Vilnius |
| 30/09/23 Lithuania II Lyga | Banga Gargzdai II | 7-0 | FK Viltis Vilnius |
| 27/05/23 Lithuania II Lyga | FK Viltis Vilnius | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Banga Gargzdai II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Viltis Vilnius
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga |
0-6 | 0-9 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga |
0-3 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | FK Riteriai II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | DFK Dainava Lithuania Cup |
0-2 | 1-7 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Banga Gargzdai II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/06 | FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga |
0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/04 | Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |