Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/06, 15:00
Ponnistus vs TuPS
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ponnistus 1450 · TuPS 1488
| Ponnistus | Draw | TuPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| Market | 23% | 19% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.26 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.26Ponnistus 1.64 · TuPS 2.61
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 4.26 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.7 combined avg at HT (1.8 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ponnistus | TuPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 3.2 | 2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 38/25/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 4 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ponnistus
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-12 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 06/05 | FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Ponnistajat Finland Kolmonen |
5-0 | 8-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
TuPS
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 3-6 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | MK United Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | JaPS Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |