Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:15
Gnistan/Ogeli vs FC Lahti II
Expected goals: 3.43 (Gnistan/Ogeli 1.55 · FC Lahti II 1.88). The model gives 32% home, 23% draw, 45% away. Under 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gnistan/Ogeli 1469 · FC Lahti II 1525
| Gnistan/Ogeli | Draw | FC Lahti II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 33% | 21% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.43Gnistan/Ogeli 1.55 · FC Lahti II 1.88
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti II (rating 1469 vs 1525).
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gnistan/Ogeli | FC Lahti II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.6 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/25/63% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Futura | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | Sibbov | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 19 |
| 3 | Atlantis II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | FC Lahti II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | RiPS | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 16 |
| 6 | JäPS/47 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | TuPS | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Gnistan/Ogeli | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 9 |
| 9 | Ponnistus | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 8 |
| 10 | ToTe/Tapio | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 3 |
| 11 | TiPS U21 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 2 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gnistan/Ogeli | FC Lahti II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Futura | 0-8 L | 1-4 L |
| Ponnistus | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Atlantis II | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sibbov | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| TuPS | 0-5 L | 2-1 W |
| ToTe/Tapio | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| MK United | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| RiPS | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| TiPS U21 | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| JäPS/47 | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Lahti II (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gnistan/Ogeli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-8 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | TuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | MK United Finland Kolmonen |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 17/04 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
FC Lahti II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/06 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 05/06 | TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | TuPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/05 | Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 03/05 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | MK United Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |