Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/06, 14:00
MiPK vs KoPa
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MiPK 1539 · KoPa 1481
| MiPK | Draw | KoPa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 67% | 16% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.68MiPK 2.52 · KoPa 1.16
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 54%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MiPK (rating 1539 vs 1481).
- High estimate: 3.68 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours MiPK: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MiPK | KoPa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 14/29/57% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.8 | 2.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MiPK 3–0–1 KoPa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/25 Finland Kolmonen | MiPK | 3-0 | KoPa |
| 09/05/25 Finland Kolmonen | KoPa | 0-4 HT 0-1 | MiPK |
| 08/08/24 Finland Kolmonen | KoPa | 0-5 HT 0-2 | MiPK |
| 29/07/23 Finland Kolmonen | KoPa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | MiPK |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MiPK
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | MP II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/06 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | HaPK Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/04 | LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Kumu Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
KoPa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Kumu Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | MP II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | HaPK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | MyPa Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |