Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/07, 18:00
SIF vs KPV Akatemia
Expected goals: 4.48 (SIF 2.89 · KPV Akatemia 1.59). The model gives 64% home, 17% draw, 19% away. Under 4.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SIF 1493 · KPV Akatemia 1459
| SIF | Draw | KPV Akatemia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 19% |
| Market | 64% | 17% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.48SIF 2.89 · KPV Akatemia 1.59
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours SIF: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SIF | KPV Akatemia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/22/22% | 50/17/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SIF 3–1–2 KPV Akatemia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | SIF | 2-2 HT 1-0 | KPV Akatemia |
| 04/06/25 Finland Kolmonen | KPV Akatemia | 4-0 HT 2-0 | SIF |
| 04/07/24 Finland Kolmonen | SIF | 5-1 HT 3-1 | KPV Akatemia |
| 18/09/23 Finland Kolmonen | KPV Akatemia | 3-1 HT 1-0 | SIF |
| 15/06/23 Finland Kolmonen | SIF | 2-1 HT 1-1 | KPV Akatemia |
| 04/08/21 Finland Kolmonen | SIF | 3-2 HT 2-0 | KPV Akatemia |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VIFK | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Kiisto | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Virkia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 4 | SJK-j | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Nykarleby IK | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 26 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Ylivieska | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 13 |
| 7 | Sporting Kristina | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | SIF | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | VPV Pallo-Veikot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| 10 | KPV Akatemia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 7 |
| 11 | LBK | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 7 |
| 12 | Sääripotku | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SIF | KPV Akatemia |
|---|---|---|
| SJK-j | 2-2 D | 2-4 L |
| Virkia | 0-3 L | 2-4 L |
| FC Ylivieska | 1-2 L | 5-3 W |
| Nykarleby IK | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sääripotku | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| VIFK | 0-1 L | 1-7 L |
| FC Kiisto | 2-3 L | 4-4 D |
| Sporting Kristina | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| LBK | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: SIF (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SIF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Virkia Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 07/05 | FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/04 | LBK Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
KPV Akatemia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 5-3 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 18/06 | Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/06 | Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
1-4 | 1-7 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen |
3-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/05 | Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | LBK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 08/05 | Virkia Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |