Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/06, 14:00
GrIFK Reservi vs ESPA
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · GrIFK Reservi 1459 · ESPA 1586
| GrIFK Reservi | Draw | ESPA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 19% | 65% |
| Market | 18% | 16% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.98 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.98GrIFK Reservi 1.33 · ESPA 2.64
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1459 vs 1586).
- High estimate: 3.98 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours ESPA: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| GrIFK Reservi | ESPA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.3 | 2.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 50/38/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 4 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · GrIFK Reservi 1–1–2 ESPA
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/24 Finland Kolmonen | GrIFK Reservi | 3-4 HT 0-3 | ESPA |
| 07/07/23 Finland Kolmonen | ESPA | 0-0 HT 0-0 | GrIFK Reservi |
| 17/09/22 Finland Kolmonen | ESPA | 0-1 HT 0-1 | GrIFK Reservi |
| 08/06/22 Finland Kolmonen | GrIFK Reservi | 1-2 HT 0-1 | ESPA |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
GrIFK Reservi
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | LePa Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Poxyt Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/05 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | MPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/10 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
ESPA
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Poxyt Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | MPS Finland Kolmonen |
4-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |