Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/06, 16:00
Kajha vs HauPa
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kajha 1567 · HauPa 1492
| Kajha | Draw | HauPa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 55% | 20% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.29Kajha 2.56 · HauPa 1.73
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 52%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kajha (rating 1567 vs 1492).
- High estimate: 4.29 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Kajha: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kajha | HauPa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.5 / 1.3 | 2.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/0/67% | 50/0/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 0 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kajha 3–1–2 HauPa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | Kajha | 8-2 | HauPa |
| 31/07/25 Finland Kolmonen | HauPa | 0-9 HT 0-4 | Kajha |
| 17/04/25 Finland Cup | HauPa | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Kajha |
| 10/06/23 Finland Kolmonen | Kajha | 3-3 HT 2-3 | HauPa |
| 14/07/21 Finland Kolmonen | HauPa | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Kajha |
| 08/05/21 Finland Kolmonen | Kajha | 3-1 HT 2-1 | HauPa |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kajha
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
– | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/04 | VPS-J Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Komeetat Finland Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | OTP Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 8-2 | – | – | W |
HauPa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/05 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
5-1 | 13-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | GBK Finland Cup |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |