Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/06, 16:00
PonPa vs Ajax Sarkkiranta
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PonPa 1455 · Ajax Sarkkiranta 1509
| PonPa | Draw | Ajax Sarkkiranta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 28% | 20% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.15 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.15PonPa 1.74 · Ajax Sarkkiranta 2.41
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax Sarkkiranta (rating 1455 vs 1509).
- High estimate: 4.15 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PonPa | Ajax Sarkkiranta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 2 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 7.3 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.3 | 2.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PonPa 1–1–0 Ajax Sarkkiranta
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | Ajax Sarkkiranta | 1-2 | PonPa |
| 03/07/25 Finland Kolmonen | PonPa | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Ajax Sarkkiranta |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PonPa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-11 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
1-5 | 1-13 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/09 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/09 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-1 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Ajax Sarkkiranta
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/09 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |