Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/06, 14:00
Sporting Kristina vs Sääripotku
82%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Kristina 1522 · Sääripotku 1372
| Sporting Kristina | Draw | Sääripotku | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 13% | 13% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
5.34 goals · Bet365 line 6.5 · -1.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals5.34Sporting Kristina 3.67 · Sääripotku 1.67
Over / Under 6.5Under 6.5 · 60%
BTTSYes · 64%
Most likely total5 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Kristina (rating 1522 vs 1372).
- High estimate: 5.34 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Sporting Kristina: 2-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Kristina | Sääripotku | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.3 | 0.5 / 5.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 3.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.9 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kristina 2–2–1 Sääripotku
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | Sporting Kristina | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sääripotku |
| 14/06/25 Finland Kolmonen | Sääripotku | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Sporting Kristina |
| 24/08/24 Finland Kolmonen | Sporting Kristina | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sääripotku |
| 02/06/24 Finland Kolmonen | Sääripotku | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Sporting Kristina |
| 01/07/20 Finland Kolmonen | Sääripotku | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Sporting Kristina |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Kristina
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Virkia Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 27/05 | LBK Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | SIF Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen |
2-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 27/09 | FF Jaro II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-11 | – | – | L |
Sääripotku
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | LBK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/06 | KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-6 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | SIF Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 19/05 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 0-10 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-8 | – | – | L |
| 08/05 | Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/09 | Seinajoen Sisu Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |