Football · China Division 2 · 28/06, 13:30
Shenzhen 2028 vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shenzhen 2028 1525 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1443
| Shenzhen 2028 | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.72Shenzhen 2028 1.8 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0.92
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen 2028 (rating 1525 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Shenzhen 2028: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shenzhen 2028 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 0.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen 2028 2–0–1 Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 China Division 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Shenzhen 2028 |
| 03/08/25 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves |
| 26/05/25 China Division 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Shenzhen 2028 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shenzhen 2028
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Shaanxi Union China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/04 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/04 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |