⚽ Football · China Division 2 · 27/06, 10:00
Changchun Xidu vs Nantong Haimen Codion
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1433 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1491
| Changchun Xidu | Draw | Nantong Haimen Codion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 25% | 30% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.14Changchun Xidu 0.87 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1.27
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 50%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Haimen Codion (rating 1433 vs 1491).
- H2H favours Nantong Haimen Codion: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Changchun Xidu | Nantong Haimen Codion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 3.5 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 0–1–2 Nantong Haimen Codion
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 China Division 2 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Changchun Xidu |
| 26/07/25 China Division 2 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Changchun Xidu |
| 16/05/25 China Division 2 | Changchun Xidu | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nantong Haimen Codion |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Changchun Xidu
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/05 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/04 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Shanghai Zetian China FA Cup |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
Nantong Haimen Codion
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/06 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/04 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Hubei Istar China FA Cup |
0-0 | 2-4 | 11 | 3 | L |