Football · China Division 2 · 28/06, 13:30
Jiangxi Lushan vs Guangzhou Dandelion
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1490 · Guangzhou Dandelion 1463
| Jiangxi Lushan | Draw | Guangzhou Dandelion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 33% | 23% |
| Market | 45% | 30% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.96Jiangxi Lushan 1.17 · Guangzhou Dandelion 0.79
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.96 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jiangxi Lushan | Guangzhou Dandelion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 1.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangxi Lushan 0–0–1 Guangzhou Dandelion
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 China Division 2 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Jiangxi Lushan |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jiangxi Lushan
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Henan China FA Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 27/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Dalian K'un City China FA Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
Guangzhou Dandelion
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Wuxi Wugo China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 05/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/04 | Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |