⚽ Football · Australia Western Australia State League 1 · 27/06, 09:00
Subiaco AFC vs Joondalup City
49%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Subiaco AFC 1438 · Joondalup City 1560
| Subiaco AFC | Draw | Joondalup City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 22% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.46Subiaco AFC 1.51 · Joondalup City 1.95
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 67%
Likely score1-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joondalup City (rating 1438 vs 1560).
- High estimate: 3.46 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Joondalup City: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Subiaco AFC | Joondalup City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Subiaco AFC 1–1–2 Joondalup City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia Western Australia State League 1 | Joondalup City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Subiaco AFC |
| 23/08/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1 | Subiaco AFC | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Joondalup City |
| 07/06/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1 | Joondalup City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Subiaco AFC |
| 03/02/24 Australia Friendlies | Joondalup City | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Subiaco AFC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Subiaco AFC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Gwelup Croatia SC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-3 | 4-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
2-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
Joondalup City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Gwelup Croatia SC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/05 | Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
2-2 | 4-3 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |