⚽ Football · Chile Segunda · 26/06, 19:00
Santiago City vs Provincial Ovalle
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santiago City 1518 · Provincial Ovalle 1435
| Santiago City | Draw | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.73Santiago City 1.82 · Provincial Ovalle 0.9
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santiago City (rating 1518 vs 1435).
- H2H favours Santiago City: 3-1-2.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santiago City | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Santiago City 3–1–2 Provincial Ovalle
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Santiago City |
| 27/07/25 Chile Segunda | Santiago City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 11/03/25 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Santiago City |
| 04/08/23 Chile Tercera | Santiago City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 27/06/23 Chile Tercera | Santiago City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 06/05/23 Chile Tercera | Provincial Ovalle | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Santiago City |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Santiago City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/05 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 12 | W |
| 11/04 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 22/03 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Provincial Ovalle
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
2-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/04 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/03 | Deportes Union Companias America Friendlies |
3-0 | 7-0 | 11 | 3 | W |