⚽ Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 24/06, 20:00
Blumenau EC vs Caravaggio SC
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blumenau EC 1564 · Caravaggio SC 1571
| Blumenau EC | Draw | Caravaggio SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.73Blumenau EC 1.52 · Caravaggio SC 1.2
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 59%
BTTSYes · 55%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueDraw +7.4%The model gives this bet 7.4% more probability than its odds (1.85) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Blumenau EC: 3-1-1.
- Early goals: 2.7 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blumenau EC | Caravaggio SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.9 | 2.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 63/25/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.3 | 1.6 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Blumenau EC 3–1–1 Caravaggio SC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Caravaggio SC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Blumenau EC |
| 16/06/24 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Caravaggio SC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Blumenau EC |
| 26/06/22 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Blumenau EC | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Caravaggio SC |
| 28/11/21 Brazil Matches | Caravaggio SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Blumenau EC |
| 24/11/21 Brazil Matches | Blumenau EC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Caravaggio SC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Blumenau EC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 17/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 20/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 16/05 | Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
Caravaggio SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 07/06 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |