Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 28/06, 21:00
Caravaggio SC vs Guarani de Palhoca
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caravaggio SC 1574 · Guarani de Palhoca 1486
| Caravaggio SC | Draw | Guarani de Palhoca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.11Caravaggio SC 2.35 · Guarani de Palhoca 0.77
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caravaggio SC (rating 1574 vs 1486).
- High estimate: 3.11 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Caravaggio SC: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caravaggio SC | Guarani de Palhoca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/33/11% | 13/38/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.3 | 2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caravaggio SC 2–1–1 Guarani de Palhoca
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Caravaggio SC |
| 06/07/24 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Guarani de Palhoca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Caravaggio SC |
| 27/05/23 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Caravaggio SC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Guarani de Palhoca |
| 02/07/22 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Caravaggio SC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Guarani de Palhoca |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caravaggio SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 07/06 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
Guarani de Palhoca
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-2 | 0-6 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |