Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 28/06, 20:00
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense SC
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hercilio Luz 1558 · Fluminense SC 1478
| Hercilio Luz | Draw | Fluminense SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 23% | 7% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.17Hercilio Luz 1.75 · Fluminense SC 0.42
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%
BTTSNo · 57%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1558 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 3-0-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hercilio Luz | Fluminense SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/50/13% | 0/71/29% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.1 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.8 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercilio Luz 3–0–2 Fluminense SC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Fluminense SC | 1-0 | Hercilio Luz |
| 22/11/20 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Fluminense SC |
| 27/09/18 Brazil Matches | Hercilio Luz | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Fluminense SC |
| 12/08/17 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Fluminense SC |
| 03/07/17 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Fluminense SC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Hercilio Luz |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hercilio Luz
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
Fluminense SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 10/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 07/05 | Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |