⚽ Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 26/06, 18:30
FK Garliava vs FK Minija
48%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1523 · FK Minija 1596
| FK Garliava | Draw | FK Minija | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.84FK Garliava 1.36 · FK Minija 1.48
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1523 vs 1596).
- H2H favours FK Garliava: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 15.1 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Garliava | FK Minija | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 2.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 4.6 / 9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 4–2–0 FK Minija
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Garliava | 4-2 HT 2-0 | FK Minija |
| 06/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Minija | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Garliava |
| 30/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Garliava | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Minija |
| 13/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Minija | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Garliava |
| 03/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Minija | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Garliava |
| 30/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Garliava | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Minija |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
FK Garliava
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/05 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Alternatyvus FK Lithuania Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
FK Minija
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Panevezys Lithuania Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | FK Pempininkai Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 4-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 15 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 0 | W |