Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 27/06, 14:00
FC Hegelmann II vs Lietava Jonava
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1439 · Lietava Jonava 1477
| FC Hegelmann II | Draw | Lietava Jonava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.8FC Hegelmann II 1.03 · Lietava Jonava 1.77
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Hegelmann II | Lietava Jonava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 1.5 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 0–1–1 Lietava Jonava
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FC Hegelmann II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Lietava Jonava |
| 26/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | Lietava Jonava | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Hegelmann II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Hegelmann II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-4 | 1-6 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 22/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 11/05 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 05/04 | FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Lietava Jonava
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 30/05 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 22/05 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FK Siauliai Lithuania Cup |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |