Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 27/06, 16:00
FK Siauliai II vs FK Babrungas
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1439 · FK Babrungas 1570
| FK Siauliai II | Draw | FK Babrungas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 18% | 74% |
| Market | 10% | 14% | 76% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.98FK Siauliai II 0.66 · FK Babrungas 2.33
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 58%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1439 vs 1570).
- H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Siauliai II | FK Babrungas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.6 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 1–0–5 FK Babrungas
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Babrungas | 1-5 HT 1-1 | FK Siauliai II |
| 27/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Siauliai II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Babrungas |
| 16/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Siauliai II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FK Babrungas |
| 22/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Babrungas | 3-2 HT 3-1 | FK Siauliai II |
| 08/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Babrungas | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Siauliai II |
| 30/06/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Siauliai II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Babrungas |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Siauliai II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 03/04 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
FK Babrungas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |