⚽ Football · New Zealand Southern League · 27/06, 04:00
Wanaka AFC vs Northern AFC
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wanaka AFC 1400 · Northern AFC 1506
| Wanaka AFC | Draw | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 16% | 18% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.43Wanaka AFC 1.54 · Northern AFC 1.88
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 68%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern AFC (rating 1400 vs 1506).
- High estimate: 3.43 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wanaka AFC | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 3.8 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.4 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Wanaka AFC 2–0–2 Northern AFC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 New Zealand Cup | Northern AFC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Wanaka AFC |
| 05/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Northern AFC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wanaka AFC |
| 10/08/19 New Zealand Southern Championship | Wanaka AFC | 6-3 HT 3-2 | Northern AFC |
| 22/06/19 New Zealand Southern League | Northern AFC | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Wanaka AFC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Wanaka AFC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-6 | 0-9 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Northern AFC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |