Football · Argentina Torneo A · 28/06, 20:00
Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Tandil
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Germinal de Rawson 1512 · Santamarina Tandil 1454
| Germinal de Rawson | Draw | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| Market | 53% | 30% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.84Germinal de Rawson 1.27 · Santamarina Tandil 0.58
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 57%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Germinal de Rawson (rating 1512 vs 1454).
- Low estimate: 1.84 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Germinal de Rawson | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 2.1 | 1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Germinal de Rawson 2–2–2 Santamarina Tandil
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 30/08/25 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 14/06/25 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 13/04/25 Argentina Torneo A | Germinal de Rawson | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Santamarina Tandil |
| 21/07/24 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 26/05/24 Argentina Torneo A | Germinal de Rawson | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Santamarina Tandil |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Germinal de Rawson
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 07/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 04/04 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Santamarina Tandil
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |