⚽ Football · New Zealand Southern League · 27/06, 00:00
Selwyn United vs Coastal Spirit
61%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Selwyn United 1406 · Coastal Spirit 1519
| Selwyn United | Draw | Coastal Spirit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| Market | 11% | 16% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.29Selwyn United 1.95 · Coastal Spirit 2.34
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 78%
Most likely total4 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coastal Spirit (rating 1406 vs 1519).
- High estimate: 4.29 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Coastal Spirit: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Selwyn United | Coastal Spirit | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3.2 | 2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Selwyn United 0–0–6 Coastal Spirit
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Selwyn United |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Coastal Spirit |
| 13/04/25 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Selwyn United |
| 22/06/24 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 2-5 HT 2-1 | Coastal Spirit |
| 29/03/24 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 7-0 HT 6-0 | Selwyn United |
| 26/08/23 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Selwyn United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Selwyn United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Coastal Spirit
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 17 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |