⚽ Football · New Zealand Southern League · 27/06, 04:45
Nomads United vs Christchurch United
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nomads United 1555 · Christchurch United 1472
| Nomads United | Draw | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 21% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.28Nomads United 2.1 · Christchurch United 1.18
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 61%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nomads United (rating 1555 vs 1472).
- High estimate: 3.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Christchurch United: 2-3-1.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg → Over corners.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nomads United | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 8.2 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Nomads United 1–3–2 Christchurch United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 New Zealand Cup | Christchurch United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nomads United |
| 03/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Nomads United |
| 14/03/26 World Club Friendlies | Nomads United | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Christchurch United |
| 19/02/26 World Club Friendlies | Nomads United | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Christchurch United |
| 20/06/25 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nomads United |
| 31/05/25 New Zealand Cup | Christchurch United | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Nomads United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Nomads United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Christchurch United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |