Football · New Zealand Southern League · 28/06, 02:45
Dunedin City Royals FC vs Nelson Suburbs
49%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunedin City Royals FC 1426 · Nelson Suburbs 1551
| Dunedin City Royals FC | Draw | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Market | 29% | 21% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.55Dunedin City Royals FC 1.52 · Nelson Suburbs 2.04
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1426 vs 1551).
- High estimate: 3.55 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Nelson Suburbs: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunedin City Royals FC | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.4 | 3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 3.1 / 8.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunedin City Royals FC 1–2–3 Nelson Suburbs
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 20/07/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 05/07/25 New Zealand Cup | Dunedin City Royals FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 18/04/25 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 08/06/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 6-2 HT 2-1 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 01/07/23 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Nelson Suburbs |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunedin City Royals FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-5 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
Nelson Suburbs
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
2-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |