⚽ Football · New Zealand Northern League · 27/06, 02:00
East Coast Bays vs Tauranga City AFC
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · East Coast Bays 1526 · Tauranga City AFC 1436
| East Coast Bays | Draw | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 54% | 21% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.72East Coast Bays 1.85 · Tauranga City AFC 0.88
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours East Coast Bays (rating 1526 vs 1436).
- H2H favours East Coast Bays: 3-2-0.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| East Coast Bays | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/67/11% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · East Coast Bays 3–2–0 Tauranga City AFC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | East Coast Bays |
| 09/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 03/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 1-3 HT 0-0 | East Coast Bays |
| 20/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 27/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | East Coast Bays |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
East Coast Bays
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Tauranga City AFC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-7 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 12 | 2 | D |